Source. the best BOM station near your pin, via SILO — CC BY 4.0
| Date | Day | Type | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-01-12 | Tue | Weather | analogue 1999; source 1999-01-11, 14.5 mm; rain 14.5 mm > 10 mm the day before |
| 2027-01-15 | Fri | Weather | analogue 1999; source 1999-01-15, 12.5 mm; band 10–25 mm, factor 1.40 |
| 2027-01-26 | Tue | Public holiday | Australia Day |
| 2027-01-29 | Fri | RDO | RDO - fortnightly Friday |
| Calendar | Tasks | Wk | Exc | PH | Shut | RDO | Block | Weather | /yr |
|---|
What does P50 actually mean? — 30 seconds, no maths
Forget the word probability. It is about counting years.
Take the last 50 years at this location. Work out how many days of wet weather you would have lost in each one. Now line those 50 years up, worst to best.
P50 is the middle year. Half the years were worse than it, half were
better. A normal year.
P80 is the year where only one year in five was worse. So in four
years out of five, this allowance would have been enough.
The thing everyone gets wrong: P80 does not mean you are 80% confident. It means four years in five, this much rain or less. You have not become more certain — you have allowed for more of the bad years.
If someone still is not with you, use the drive to work. Your commute normally takes 30 minutes, but some days it is 45. Leave 30 minutes early and you are late half the time — that is P50. Leave 45 minutes early and you are on time four days out of five — that is P80. You are not a better driver. You have allowed for the bad days.
| What it is | When you would use it | |
|---|---|---|
| P50 | A normal year | Someone else carries the weather risk, or you want a realistic mid‑case |
| P80 | A bad year, but not the worst | You carry the risk and do not want to be back asking for time |
| P90 | A year that bad turns up about once a decade | Rarely defensible — you are pricing a rare event into every job |
Higher number = bigger allowance = safer for you, because lost days are the bad thing being counted. Wind and solar studies use the same letters the opposite way round, which is how arguments start in meetings.